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Signal Extraction: Efficient Estimation, 'Unit Root'-Tests and Early Detection of Turning Points (2005)

Signal Extraction

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"Signal Extraction" by Marc Wildi is a mathematics book and learning resource focused on Core Mathematics. Best for teachers, students, and readers looking for stronger mathematical understanding.

The material contained in this book originated in interrogations about modern practice in time series analysis. • Why do we use models optimized with respect to one-step ahead foreca- ing performances for applications involving multi-step ahead forecasts? • Why do we infer 'long-term' properties (unit-roots) of an unknown process from statistics essentially based on short-term one-step ahead forecasting performances of particular time series models? • Are we able to detect turning-points of trend components earlier than with traditional signal extraction procedures? The link between 'signal extraction' and the first two questions above is not immediate at first sight. Signal extraction problems are often solved by su- ably designed symmetric filters. Towards the boundaries (t = 1 or t = N) of a time series a particular symmetric filter must be approximated by asymm- ric filters. The time series literature proposes an intuitively straightforward solution for solving this problem: • Stretch the observed time series by forecasts generated by a model. • Apply the symmetric filter to the extended time series. This approach is called 'model-based'. Obviously, the forecast-horizon grows with the length of the symmetric filter. Model-identification and estimation of unknown parameters are then related to the above first two questions. One may further ask, if this approximation problem and the way it is solved by model-based approaches are important topics for practical purposes? Consider some 'prominent' estimation problems: • The determination of the seasonally adjusted actual unemployment rate.

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Best For: Researchers and practitioners in time series analysis and econometrics
Focus: Efficient estimation methods, unit root testing, and early detection of turning points in time series data
Covers: Modern practices in time series analysis including forecasting models and statistical inference related to unit roots
Why It Matters: Addresses the gap between short-term forecasting optimization and long-term property inference in time series, improving understanding and application of these methods

"Signal Extraction" by Marc Wildi is a mathematics book and learning resource focused on Core Mathematics. Best for teachers, students, and readers looking for stronger mathematical understanding.

Topic: Core Mathematics

Author: Marc Wildi

Who this is for:

  • Teachers and classroom instructors
  • Students building subject mastery
  • Readers looking for practical learning support

Why this book matters: It stands out as a practical math resource that helps explain concepts, strengthen problem-solving, and support classroom or independent learning.

The material contained in this book originated in interrogations about modern practice in time series analysis. • Why do we use models optimized with respect to one-step ahead foreca- ing performances for applications involving multi-step ahead forecasts? • Why do we infer 'long-term' properties (unit-roots) of an unknown process from statistics essentially based on short-term one-step ahead forecasting performances of particular time series models? • Are we able to detect turning-points of trend components earlier than with traditional signal extraction procedures? The link between 'signal extraction' and the first two questions above is not immediate at first sight. Signal extraction problems are often solved by su- ably designed symmetric filters. Towards the boundaries (t = 1 or t = N) of a time series a particular symmetric filter must be approximated by asymm- ric filters. The time series literature proposes an intuitively straightforward solution for solving this problem: • Stretch the observed time series by forecasts generated by a model. • Apply the symmetric filter to the extended time series. This approach is called 'model-based'. Obviously, the forecast-horizon grows with the length of the symmetric filter. Model-identification and estimation of unknown parameters are then related to the above first two questions. One may further ask, if this approximation problem and the way it is solved by model-based approaches are important topics for practical purposes? Consider some 'prominent' estimation problems: • The determination of the seasonally adjusted actual unemployment rate.

AuthorMarc Wildi
PublisherSpringer Science & Business Media
Published2004-10-20
ISBN-139783540229353
BindingPaperback
Pages296
LanguageEnglish
SubjectsBusiness & Economics
TopicCore Mathematics
SeriesLecture Notes in Economic and Mathematical Systems

Format: Paperback

Length: 296 pages

Language: English

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